Certainly, the coronavirus pandemic will forever mark the year 2020. With a global impact, this epidemic which has been raging for a year now, has hit very hard all the economies of the world and has disrupted everyone's social and professional habits. . Measures adopted to stem the spread of the virus and ease pressures on health systems have had serious consequences for the global economy, an economy that will be marked by a severe contraction this year, which will see even the worst recession since the Second World war according to some specialists.
In Turkey, the year 2020 ends on a positive economic note: first of all with a growth rate of 4.5% in the first quarter of the year, the only G20 country with India to have recorded positive growth over this period, then with a spectacular rebound of 6.7% in the third quarter compared to the same period in 2019 which follows a drop of nearly 10% in the second quarter.
After the activity drop in the spring, the increase observed over July-September in Turkey is unique among the G20 countries, China included. However, with the application of partial containments at the end of the year, the Turkish economy is expected to go through a difficult fourth quarter, whose GDP is mainly based on consumption. Indeed, faced with a rising number of infections and deaths linked to the epidemic recorded in recent weeks, Turkey has chosen to tighten restrictive measures by implementing a curfew in early November on weekdays (from 9:00 p.m. to 5:00 a.m.) and full containment on weekends. These restrictions will also be in effect for New Years Eve, with a lockdown from Thursday, December 31 at 9 p.m. until Monday, January 04 at 5 a.m.
Despite all that, growth estimates for Turkey remain encouraging, analysts maintain their prognosis of growth, even minimal, over the whole of 2020, unlike most emerging countries, which should be followed by a rapid recovery in 2021 with growth forecasts estimated at around 4-5%.
Finally, one point especially worthy of note is that the epidemic will not have slowed down the investment decisions of foreign companies in Turkey, investments which intensified at the end of the year as shown by the articles within this latest newsletter of the year. As a world economic force now rising among the greatest international powers, Turkey is a state located at the crossroads of energy supply routes and having an interface position between Europe, Asia and Africa.
Its geostrategic location, demographic attractiveness and economic resilience appeal to foreign investors who increasingly see Turkey as an alternative market to China in a context of diversification of procurement practices linked to the epidemic. Finally, the number of investment incentives identified over the January-November 2020 period in Turkey, 30% higher than the same period in 2019, confirms the country's economic attractiveness.
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